Benford Real Estate, Silicon Valley, Santa Clara County

At the end of 2011, the inventory of homes for sale in Santa Clara County reached its lowest since March of 2005, at 2,018 units for sale. What does that mean? It means that with sales at a steady 1,100 per month clip at mortgage interest rates below 4%, real estate values in the San Jose/Silicon Valley area are ripe to strengthen. And who wouldn’t want that?

Don’t expect a wild run-up in prices this year as was seen in the early 2000s. Don’t even hope for that. What we’d like to see is values rising at least 4% in 2012. Based on 2011′s numbers and the current conditions, that’s a reasonable expectation and one that will put us well on our way to a better overall economy.

The Valley Breakdown – median prices and months of inventory for various parts of Santa Clara County – click image to enlarge

Santa Clara County Listings, Pended Sales, and Closed Sales: Houses, Townhouses, and Condominiums Combined

Vital Signs: (Santa Clara County houses, townhouses, and condos, as of December 2011)

Total Active Listings: 2,018
Average asking price of unsold homes: $876,000 (remember, luxury homes in higher price ranges take longer to sell and skew this number higher)
Average sales price of sold homes: $620,000
Median sales price of sold homes: $475,000
Average percentage of original asking price obtained by successful sellers: 94%
Average number of cumulative days on market: 79
Closed sales, year-to-date: 15,322
Listings expired during December 2011: 144
Average 1-year appreciation: 3.5%
Months of supply by the end of December, based on closed sales: 1.7 (sellers’ market: competing bids are not unusual)
Average 30-year fixed interest rate as of January 19, 2012: 3.88%, 0.8 points

Conventional wisdom among homeowners is that the holiday season is a bad time to put one’s home on the market. But if 99% of potential home sellers took that advice to heart, the remaining 1% would have a lot to gain: less competition for the same pool of buyers, potentially making for a quick sale.

Let’s look at the facts: at the end of November, in Santa Clara County, there were 2,535 homes, including condominiums, on the market. That’s the lowest total at any time of year in nearly two years! And there are buyers out there: Year-to-date through November 2011, there were 13,575 sales. The same time period in 2010 there were 13,224; in 2009, 13,591. Clearly the demand has not diminished this year – it is there, and we can personally vouch for it. We currently have multiple buyer clients who have been looking for homes for months and yet remain on the hunt, even now between Christmas and New Year’s! Many of them have more time this week due to days off from work.

So are the holidays really a bad time to put a home on the market? Lay it to rest – it’s a myth. Some years are better, some are worse, but it has nothing to do with the holidays. You can sell your home whenever it suits you best, and we’ll be there to help.

The Valley Breakdown – median prices and months of inventory for various parts of Santa Clara County – click image to enlarge

Santa Clara County Listings, Pended Sales, and Closed Sales: Houses, Townhouses, and Condominiums Combined

Vital Signs: (Santa Clara County houses, townhouses, and condos, as of November 2011)
Total Active Listings: 2,535
Average asking price of unsold homes: $895,000 (remember, luxury homes in higher price ranges take longer to sell and skew this number higher)
Average sales price of sold homes: $636,000
Median sales price of sold homes: $478,000
Average percentage of original asking price obtained by successful sellers: 95%
Average number of cumulative days on market: 73
Closed sales, year-to-date: 13,575
Listings expired during November 2011: 144
Average 1-year appreciation: 1.3%
Months of supply by the end of November, based on closed sales: 2.3 (sellers’ market – not a typo)
Average 30-year fixed interest rate as of December 22, 2011: 3.91%, 0.7 points

The average sales price for Santa Clara County homes dropped nearly 10% from October 2010 to October 2011. That sounds bad but only part of the market is taking the hit. Among homes priced $500,000 or higher, 626 sold last month, down from 678 in October 2010. The average price went down from $978,000 to $939,000. But among homes below $500,000, the number of sales went up from 534 to 604, and the price went from $330,000 to $331,000, virtually the same.

So what’s going on? Well part of it is just that affordable homes sell better than expensive ones. But that’s true all the time – and we haven’t seen such large year-to-year fluctuations in price in previous months this year. Another factor could be that the conforming loan limit (that is, the maximum loan amount that can be re-sold by banks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the secondary market) expired at the end of September, automatically dropping from $729,750 to $625,500. And in a high-cost area like Silicon Valley, that’s bound to have an impact. The National Association of REALTORS®, meanwhile, is lobbying Congress to renew the higher limit.

Regardless of what happens in Washington, our market will adjust. But for now, we’re happy to let you know what’s going on behind the scenes while continuing to provide great service and results for our clients.

The Valley Breakdown – median prices and months of inventory for various parts of Santa Clara County – click image to enlarge

Santa Clara County Listings, Pended Sales, and Closed Sales: Houses, Townhouses, and Condominiums Combined

Vital Signs: (Santa Clara County houses, townhouses, and condos, as of October 2011)
Total Active Listings: 2,973
Average asking price of unsold homes: $898,000 (remember, luxury homes in higher price ranges take longer to sell and skew this number higher)
Average sales price of sold homes: $613,000
Median sales price of sold homes: $472,000
Average percentage of original asking price obtained by successful sellers: 96%
Average number of cumulative days on market: 73
Closed sales, year-to-date: 12,939
Listings expired during October 2011: 148
Average 1-year appreciation: -9.9%
Months of supply by the end of October, based on closed sales: 2.6 (slight sellers’ market)
Average 30-year fixed interest rate as of November 17, 2011: 4.00%, 0.7 points

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For the week ending October 7, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate had dropped below 4%, a psychological threshold which perhaps spurred borrowing and refinancing judging by the fact that the number bounced back to 4.12% the following week. I’m no better a predictor of the future than anyone, but when my clients wonder out loud whether interest rates will continue to drop, I typically say that we can’t take a good opportunity for granted. Sure, another better one may come along, but how do we know that? We either give up on the chance to get a “better deal”, or miss out on a “good deal” all together because we were waiting for a “better deal” that did not come. Which is less regrettable?

It is also worth noting that the inventory of homes for sale in Santa Clara County seems to be going into the seasonal end-of-year decline, at 3169 as of the end of September, the third consecutive month of significant decline. This is not a bad thing because the number of closed sales remains proportional, giving us a healthy 2.8 months’ worth of inventory. Some sellers may even take advantage of the holiday season by putting their homes on the market when the competition from other sellers is likely to be at its lowest. If interest rates stay on the rebound this quarter while inventory is still dropping, some buyers will feel the urge to lock in the lowest rate possible, giving a boost to values in some markets.

The Valley Breakdown – median prices and months of inventory for various parts of Santa Clara County – click image to enlarge

Santa Clara County Listings, Pended Sales, and Closed Sales: Houses, Townhouses, and Condominiums Combined

Vital Signs: (Santa Clara County houses, townhouses, and condos, as of September 2011)
Total Active Listings: 3,169
Average asking price of unsold homes: $908,000 (remember, luxury homes in higher price ranges take longer to sell and skew this number)
Average sales price of sold homes: $624,000
Median sales price of sold homes: $492,000
Average percentage of original asking price obtained by successful sellers: 96%
Average number of cumulative days on market: 64
Closed sales, year-to-date: 11,651
Listings expired during September 2011: 167
Average 1-year appreciation: -4.9%
Months of supply by the end of September, based on closed sales: 2.8 (slight sellers’ market)
Average 30-year fixed interest rate as of October 14, 2011: 4.12%, 0.8 points

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A shaving was taken off the total number of homes for sale in Santa Clara County for the second month in a row in August. After remaining steady at nearly 3,700 units in spring and early summer, we’re now at our lowest level this year at 3,355. Although this is typical of the annual cycle, this time last year the inventory was still growing. And while it may bring modest relief to sellers who are concerned about soft prices, it means the first-time home buyer market (which has remained vibrant despite broader economic challenges) must face tighter competition with investors and cash-buyers. What the numbers don’t show is that many of these first-time home buyers are unexpectedly finding themselves being outbid on their first-choice homes. With just 2.4 months of inventory it is indeed a Silicon Valley market that slightly favors sellers in terms of units if not in price. Oh, by the way… the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage last week was 4.09%. We’re (almost) tired of saying how amazingly low the rates are, but there you have it!

The Valley Breakdown – median prices and months of inventory for various parts of Santa Clara County – click image to enlarge

Santa Clara County Listings, Pended Sales, and Closed Sales: Houses, Townhouses, and Condominiums Combined

Vital Signs: (Santa Clara County houses, townhouses, and condos, as of August 2011)
Total Active Listings: 3,355
Average asking price of unsold homes: $895,000 (remember, luxury homes in higher price ranges take longer to sell and skew this number)
Average sales price of sold homes: $654,000
Median sales price of sold homes: $520,000
Average percentage of original asking price obtained by successful sellers: 97%
Average number of cumulative days on market: 66
Closed sales, year-to-date: 10,445
Listings expired during August 2011: 105
Average 1-year appreciation: -3.0%
Months of supply by the end of August, based on closed sales: 2.4 (slight sellers’ market)
Average 30-year fixed interest rate as of September 16, 2011: 4.09%, 0.7 points